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Figure 3. Predicted probability of remission, defined as no major depressive disorder diagnosis and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) score of <8 after treatment, using intention-to-treat (left panel) and limited to patients who did not exhibit an early response (n = 183) (right panel). Early responders are defined as patients with >50% reduction from baseline in Beck Depression Inventory scores after the first week of treatment. Probability estimates are for a patient with the most typical profile in the study: age 52 years, female, Caucasian, one prior major depressive episode, and a baseline HAM-D score of 17. Error bars represent 95% confidence limits. Planned contrasts using intention-to-treat yielded the following test results: all active treatment versus placebo, p = .057; all exercise versus medication, p = .636; supervised exercise versus home exercise, p = .666. After removing early responders, the contrast results were: all active treatment versus placebo, p = .022; all exercise versus medication, p = .879; supervised exercise versus home exercise, p = .519. Sup = supervised exercise; Med = medication; Plac = placebo.
